Two heavy-hitters suit up for a potential Rawalpindi run-fest

"We might need to make 400 if we bat first," Alex Carey told a press conference in Rawalpindi on Monday, the day before Australia's Champions Trophy match against South Africa.

In Karachi on Friday, South Africa's 315/6 was enough to beat Afghanistan by 107 runs. On Saturday in Lahore, England scored 351/5 - which was the tournament's record total until Australia chased it down with five wickets standing and 15 balls to spare.

Whatever happens when the Aussies and South Africans clash in Rawalpindi on Tuesday, do not expect a target of less than 300. Four of the dozen innings in the competition so far have passed that mark. These are two of the heaviest hitting batting line-ups in the Champions Trophy. And two of the attacks who have been the most impacted by injuries and other issues.

Cue runs. Hundreds of them. Might the record aggregate in a men's ODI be in danger? That's an unsurprisingly tall order: it's currently 872.

But it isn't out of the question considering the likely conditions and the fact who set the record - Australia made 434/4 and South Africa replied with 438/9 with a ball to spare at the Wanderers in March 2006. That marked the first time 400 was breached. It's now happened 27 times.

Eight of those elephantine totals have been made by South Africa and two by Australia. India have done it seven times, England five times, Sri Lanka and New Zealand twice each, and Zimbabwe once.

The Aussies have conceded 400 three times and the South Africans twice. It's happened four times to West Indies, thrice to Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, twice to India, Pakistan and Ireland, and once to New Zealand, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, the United States and Bermuda.

Teams who have racked up 400 and more have won 24 of those 27 ODIs. Besides that outrageous day at the Wanderers in March 2006, the exceptions have been when Sri Lanka's 411/8 wasn't enough to hold India in Rajkot in December 2009, and at Chinnaswamy during the 2023 World Cup. DLS revised New Zealand's 401/6 to a target of 342 in 41 overs. Pakistan were 200/1 after 25.3 - 21 runs ahead of par at that stage - when the rain returned and stayed.

Carey was joking when he made his quip about needing 400, but there can be no missing the dark lining of seriousness in his silver cloud of humour. He knows, as everyone else involved will, that these teams have done it before and could do it again.

Especially as both teams have proven themselves as contenders for the semifinals. That wasn't certain when Australia arrived not only depleted but having lost all four of their previous ODIs. The South Africans had lost six on the bounce, albeit with teams weakened by injuries and franchise T20 commitments.

What with England, the other side in the group, having beaten in seven of the eight white-ball games they had played in India in the preceding 21 days, the Afghans - who had won eight of their previous 10 completed ODIs, including two of the three they played against South Africa in Sharjah in September - looked likely to sweep into the semis without fuss.

Friday's result ripped up that script, and Saturday's sharpened the focus on Tuesday's showdown. Not for the first time, Australia and South Africa will clash in a consequential match at an ICC event.

Victory will all but confirm a place in the final four. Defeat will make that team's last group game all but unloseable if they want to stay in the running. Rain could get in the way, but if it doesn't whoever bats first might indeed need 400.

When: February 25, 14:00 Local, 11:00 SAT, 14:30 IST

Where: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium

What to expect: Another docile pitch. And rain: a 62% chance of showers forecast for the afternoon strengthens to 71% in the evening.

Team news:

Australia

Not having Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Marsh and Marcus Stoinis around didn't stop the Aussies from roaring to a rousing win over England. That should mean there's no reason to tamper with the XI.

Probable XI:Matthew Short, Travis Head, Steve Smith (capt), Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis (wk), Alex Carey, Glenn Maxwell, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Adam Zampa, Spencer Johnson

South Africa

The elbow problem that kept Heinrich Klaasen out of the side who beat Afghanistan has not been resolved. He might have to sit out again.

Probable XI: Ryan Rickelton (wk), Tony de Zorzi, Temba Bavuma (capt), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi

Did you know?

- Australia have lost four of their last five ODIs.

- South Africa have won only one of their last seven ODIs, but they have won four of the last five ODIs they have played against Australia.

- Australia have won six of the 10 matches between these teams in ICC ODI and T20I tournaments.

What they said:

"It's an inexperienced attack, there's no hiding away from that. We've got some experience with our leg spinner, Adam Zampa. We've got Glenn Maxwell, who's really smart with how he bowls, and we've got Steve Smith, who's a fantastic captain. If we are to bat first throughout the tournament, I'll back our boys to defend a score of 300 plus. If not, Nathan Ellis has got a lot of tricks, Spencer Johnson's really damaging up the top, and so is Ben Dwarshuis. And we've got Sean Abbott ready to go. We've come into this tournament confident that our attack will do a fantastic job without the big three." - Alex Carey gives a masterclass in the thoroughly Australian virtue of talking a weakness into a strength.

"Any Australian outfit who come together for an ICC event is always one you don't take lightly. Yes, they don't have their mainstay attack. But they have enough to be successful. It could be a case of their batters doing more than what they're accustomed to. Probably in their bowling there are opportunities [to get on top], and if that presents itself we'll definitely look to make use of that." - Temba Bavuma sees through the smoke and mirrors.