CT 2025 Final: The two-way spin threat and sweep gains

It will be India taking on New Zealand in the summit clash in the ninth edition of Champions Trophy in Dubai on Sunday (March 9), a re-match from the last Sunday where India came up trumps. India are the only unbeaten side in the tournament while New Zealand have booked their place having played across all the four different venues. New Zealand have gained some invaluable experience having played once in Dubai and on paper, look the best equipped to upset India's applecart. New Zealand were India's bugbear in ICC events not so long ago, but India have had the recent advantage over them, winning each of the last six ODIs against them - three of those in ICC events.

There will be only one selection call for each team to make: for India whether to bring in an additional seamer in place of Kuldeep Yadav, though that will leave them without an option to take the ball away from the left handers heavy New Zealand batting line-up. Runs have dried up for Will Young after the hundred in the opening game and they might ponder on whether to include another southpaw in Devon Conway.

What does the wicket in Dubai offer?

This will be the fifth match in Dubai and will be played on the same wicket as the India-Pakistan game, which was the center wicket. The wickets in Dubai have been slow and sluggish offering something for both spin and seam while batters who have absorbed pressure and played the waiting game have made runs here.

One pattern that emerged from the four games in Dubai has been that whichever team's spinners came out on top went on to win the game that day. The tracks have offered some degree of turn but are far from being labelled rank turners.

The two facets that have bought spin in play here are bowlers who can bowl quick and straight - two parameters that India excel at. Balls projected to hit the stumps have averaged 20.59 to 53.23 to those that aren't while balls clocked over 90+kph have averaged 25.50 to 45.21 for those bowled below 90. India's spinners have bowled 52.5% of the balls above 90 kph, the highest among all teams. 34.9% of their balls are projected at the stumps, second highest after Pakistan while New Zealand is not very far behind at 33.2%.

Spinners in Dubai in CT 2025

Matt Henry vs India's top order

Ten wickets in 11 innings at 20.20 against India in Powerplay. 2/57 vs Kohli. 2/59 vs Rohit. 2/62 vs Gill. A World Cup semifinal Player of the Match performance. He is the highest wicket taker in ODIs this year as well as in the tournament and bagged a five-fer in the group fixture against India. There will be a batter or two in India's top order that will have some demons in their head when they see Matt Henry at the top of his run.

Henry's strength is hitting a good length and getting it to nibble around, and invariably Rohit will be tasked to throw Henry off his lengths. In the last two meeting between the two, Rohit scored 33 runs off 18 balls from the Kiwi pacer with the batter stepping down the track, clearing the ropes thrice in as many attempts.

India's openers off late are intent on quick starts to get ahead of the eight-ball inside the Powerplay but on Sunday they may cede some early ground to the New Zealand seamers to capitalize later on in the innings where the speedsters haven't been as optimal as they are with the new ball. However, there is an injury cloud over Henry's availability for Sunday's game after he hurt his shoulder while fielding in the semifinal.

Spin challenge for India's middle-order

New Zealand's spin duo of Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell have been in remarkable form in the tournament, and they will have the challenge of bowling to India's middle-order who are among the runs. Virat Kohli is India's leading run-getter of the tournament but one weakness that plagued him for some time in the format has been left-arm spin.

Since the start of 2022, Kohli averages only 26.80 against them and his scoring rate dips to 73/100 balls. Santner has dismissed Kohli thrice in ODIs and has kept a lid on scoring with the latter striking only at 69.49 against the New Zealand skipper across 259 balls. Kohli has scored 113 runs at a strike rate of 73.85 against spin this tournament but the only left-arm spin he faced was from part-timers Khushdil Shah and Cooper Connolly. He has played 59.4% of the balls off the back foot - the highest ever he has in a series in ODIs - a clear shift from his normal approach. Should the Dubai track remain slow he would need to figure out his scoring options quickly.

In the group stage fixture between the sides, it was the fourth wicket stand between Shreyas Iyer and Axar Patel that rescued India from a top-order collapse and propelled them to a challenging total. After absorbing pressure from the seamers, the pair unleashed on the spinners, more so on Bracewell. So far in the tournament, Shreyas has scored 126 runs against spin while Axar has hit 67 at a strike rate of 94.36. Both of them have been innovative moving around the crease to throw bowlers off their lines and lengths and have also employed sweeps frequently to open up areas in the field.

Santner has been in fine form, picking seven wickets in four games, despite three of those played in Pakistan. His success can be attributed to not leaving the stumps (39.5% of his balls projected to hit the stumps). The one India batter that has kept Santner at bay is Shubman Gill who has been able to score runs off the spinner, both off the back foot (64 off 61) and coming down the track (25 off 8). Gill scored 115 off 104 balls from Santner and 62 off 41 balls from Bracewell, and has not got out to either of them in ODIs.

India batters vs spin in CT 2025

Can Ravindra bat deep?

Rachin is one run behind the tournament's leading run-getter Ben Duckett despite missing the opening game, scoring hundreds against Bangladesh and South Africa. In the group stage fixture, his early dismissal meant India's left-arm spinners and Varun Chakravarthy got to bowl continuously at the right handers for an extended period of time until Tom Latham's entry.

India's spinners bowled 17 overs at a stretch against Young, Williamson and Mitchell - 14 of those by Axar, Jadeja, and Varun - where they squeezed the scoring by conceding at 3.41/over that pushed the asking rate above a run-a-ball in the chase. Rohit has managed Axar and Jadeja's workload well this competition with them bowling only 20.3% and 16.1% of their balls to left handers, but if Rachin can stay at the wicket longer, that will force Rohit to rejig his bowling plans.

Sweep their way to put the pressure back

India's spinners have ruled the roost in the games in Dubai but one shot that has put them off, though only occasionally, has been the sweep and its variants. Bangladesh played 13 of those for 23 runs, Pakistan used it as a release shot hitting 39 runs off 19 balls while Australia made 47/1 off 15 such shots. New Zealand, who otherwise deploy the shot more often than any other team, managed only 11 runs off 17 sweeps and lost Tom Latham attempting to reverse sweep Jadeja. India placed their fielders more squarish than usual, cutting off the sweeps and choking New Zealand batters in the middle.

Daryll Mitchell, who is one of the biggest proponents of sweep shots, failed to successfully play it against India spinners last Sunday on a track that was holding up and offering some turn. Cut off from his lifeblood, he fell for a scratchy 35-ball 17, having scored back-to-back hundreds against the same opponent the last two he played against them.

New Zealand - the best fielding side in the competition

New Zealand have been exceptional in the field and their game against India were an exhibition of their athleticism. They have a catching efficiency of 91.1%, daylight ahead of the rest, while India have been amongst the sloppier teams, dropping seven catches and a stumping though the bowlers have kept on creating chances to cover up for it. In a game a small margins, a half-chance taken or a few runs saved could be the difference and New Zealand are ahead in this aspect.

Fielding teamwise in CT 2025