India and New Zealand out to seek elusive ODI glory

Just before the start of the Indian team's net session under lights at the ICC Academy in Dubai, Rohit Sharma and Gautam Gambhir were seen engrossed in a serious discussion. It's unlikely they were confabulating about a joint family vacation after the Champions Trophy final on Sunday. What then? One can discern a few topics that could have dominated that midfield conclave ahead of the final against New Zealand. They may well be Kane Williamson and Mitchell Santner, Matt Henry and above all Rachin Ravindra.

The last one first. The 25-year-old all-rounder has made phenomenal strides in world cricket of late, leaving one to wonder what he could achieve in the next decade. In just 18 months, he has scored five ODI centuries in the ICC events. Big deal? Kane Williamson, the New Zealand great, has only managed two, and bigger names in New Zealand cricket have less. India must find a way to dismiss him early, like they did in the previous game, before he ascends to take control of the game. Coincidentally enough, he's coming off a brilliant century against South Africa in the semifinal. He was the player of that match.

The sight of Henry could provide a chilling memory of that gloomy July morning in Manchester in 2019, when the pacer had ripped apart India's top order, transposing the gloom in the weather outside to inside the Indian dressing room. India must prevent him from making inroads, and wreaking havoc early, like he did that morning in Manchester and here in the league game last Sunday. Rohit and Shubman Gill need to counter him. There has been talk of an injury to him - will the Indian team be concerned? An easy guess.

Williamson, like old wine, is only getting better and better. With no burden of captaincy, he's playing with renewed freedom and confidence. He will pose a serious threat to the Indian bowlers on Sunday, and it will be important for India to dismiss him early, whether through pace or spin. Like Rachin, he too is coming off a century in the semifinal.

Another serious threat will be Mitchell Santner, the unassuming, under-the-radar captain, who can keep batsmen in check with his subtle control. Of particular interest will be his battle with Virat Kohli, who has shown some vulnerability against quality spin.

Another crucial factor in the game will be New Zealand's fielding, an area where every player excels. It will be a contest between India's batsmen and New Zealand's fielders, who are capable of pulling off miracles on the field with their preparation, athleticism, and anticipation. Few teams in world cricket can boast of such skills and win matches purely through their fielding. That could be a defining element in the final.

With no dew in the night, the toss is unlikely to be a major factor although the New Zealand team management seems to be contemplating batting first, should they have the option, primarily to counter Varun Chakravarthy's spin. For the Indian team, the toss won't be a key determinant - they would be comfortable setting a target or chasing one.

India are clearly the stronger side. But then, India have often been the better team in most face-offs with New Zealand in the ICC tournaments, yet they have ended up losing more often than winning in the global competitions.

When: March 9, 13:00 Local, 14:30 IST

Where: Dubai International Cricket Stadium

What to expect: A keen contest between teams of equal strength if not in star power. Toss may not be crucial but India will not mind batting first or second. Unlikely that it will be a high-scoring game

Team News:

With Hardik Pandya delivering with the new ball, India have gone into the recent matches with two pacers and four spinners, Varun Chakaravarhty, being the fourth spinner. That seems the right lineup for the conditions in Dubai and they may not tamper with the winning combination.

There may, however, be a temptation to rest Kuldeep Yadav, who was not too impressive in the last two matches, for a pacer - Harshit Rana or Arshdeep Singh. That said, Rohit is known to give a long rope to the proven match-winners.

Probable XI: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami and Varun Chakaravarthy.

New Zealand

Like India, the Black Caps too may opt for the XI that won them the semifinal which means Devon Conway will continue to remain on the bench. They too have four spinners like India - Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell, Glenn Philips and Rachin Ravindra - which means they have the right people for the conditions here.

There has been an injury cloud over Matt Henry who had a sore shoulder while fielding during the semifinal. He has been recovering well and should be available for selection but if there is a last-minute blip, Nathan Smith or Jacob Duffy will have to slot in.. There could be a temptation to pitch in Devon Conway, as it would be a better match up against India's two left-arm spinners, left-arm wrist spin and right-arm mystery spin. However, given the recent form and his exploits on the Test tour of India, Young should keep his spot.

Probable XI: Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson, Tom Latham(wk), Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner(c), Kyle Jamieson, William ORourke, Matt Henry/Nathan Smith

Did you know?

- New Zealand have a 3-1 record in ICC knockout matches against India, having won the CT final in 2000, the 2019 World Cup semifinal and the WTC final in 2021. India's only win came in the 2023 World Cup semifinal

- Rohit Sharma is the first ever captain to reach the final in all four Men's ICC tournaments - the WTC (2023), ODI World Cup (2023), T20 World Cup (2024) and Champions Trophy (2025)

- New Zealand's spinners have picked up 15 wickets collectively in the matches against Pakistan, Bangladesh and South Africa, averaging 26 at a strike rate of 31.6. In the match against India, they got only two wickets at an average of 64 and a strike rate of 75

- Virat Kohli needs another 55 to become the second-highest run-scorer in ODI history. Incidentally, it was in the 2023 World Cup semis against New Zealand when he went past Sachin Tendulkar's tally of 49 ODI tons

- Kane Williamson has scored 333 runs in his last six innings against India, at an average of 83.25 with a strike rate of 79.28, including four half-centuries

- Pacers and spinners have bagged 30 wickets each in the CT matches in Dubai. Pacers have had more success in the first innings (22) while spinners have bagged 14 and 16 wickets respectively in the two innings

What they said

"The draw that happened, it happened before. After India winning four matches, if people feel that there is an advantage, then I don't know what to say about it. End of the day, I think in a game, you have to play good cricket every day when you turn up. So the only thing they (critics) may say is that we play here. But that is how the draw is. So nothing else can happen in that. It is not that after coming here, they changed something and we got an advantage" - Sitanshu Kotak, India batting coach, on team having advantage by playing all their games in Dubai

"The decision around that's out of our hands. It's not something we worry about too much. India have got to play all their games here in Dubai. But we have had a game here and we'll learn very quickly from that experience there as well. We've had eight teams here at the start. We're down to two now. It's always exciting to be in this situation. And from our perspective, it just comes to a one-off game now. And if we're good enough to beat India on Sunday, then I'm sure we'll be very, very happy" - Gary Stead, New Zealand head coach on advantages to India